Loaded-mile fees must fund the whole fleet operation, not only the miles carrying a load. This fictional Dallas-Fort Worth regional dry-van carrier applies loaded realization once to one three-tractor mileage pool. Its January 2027–December 2029 forecast keeps driver salaries, fuel, repairs, insurance and support costs, and remains loss-making.
Verify actual loaded and empty miles on paid lanes before accepting a rate. A larger reserve can finance weak fleet economics without making the rate sufficient.
Which miles generate the modeled fee?
The fleet has 29,700 available miles monthly. The base request is 20,196 loaded miles before ramp and seasonality. Spot, dedicated, expedited, multistop and drop-and-hook work split those loaded miles once; the rate is not earned on every road mile or separately for each trip label.
Empty repositioning and downtime reduce the loaded realization already used by the forecast. Do not apply that reduction again to the table or invent a second fleet from its five categories. The monthly pool is an assumption requiring a practical route and driver schedule.
| Freight type | Loaded miles | Fee/loaded mile | Earned fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot freight | 7,068.6 | $2.90 | $20,498.94 |
| Dedicated lanes | 6,058.8 | $3.10 | $18,782.28 |
| Expedited | 2,019.6 | $3.75 | $7,573.50 |
| Multistop retail | 3,029.4 | $3.35 | $10,148.49 |
| Drop and hook | 2,019.6 | $2.85 | $5,755.86 |
What must the loaded-mile fee pay for?
Direct purchases are 45.5% of revenue in this narrowed case. Driver payroll is separate and counted once. Fuel/spares can have physical stock; outside repairs and tolls cannot be stored.
Three paid drivers operate the tractors. Fractional dispatch/billing and operations management are separately paid coverage budgets rather than additional drivers. Insurance, parking, software and standing fleet costs continue when loaded work is weak. No cargo resale, broker commissions or special accessorial income is added.
Does the mature lane mix support the fleet?
April revenue is $62,759.07, direct costs are $28,555.38 and operating expenses are $38,092.68. EBITDA is -$3,888.99, before depreciation, interest and tax.
Operating-year 2027 EBITDA is -$76,321.51 and net income is -$141,035.80. The saved case keeps first-year direct-cost ratios rather than adding later aging steps. Major failures and changing repair costs therefore remain sensitivities, not already funded improvements.
Why is freight revenue not immediately spendable?
Customer collection is modeled at 30 days, while purchase payments use 5 blended days. Operating-year 2027 collects $637,004.54 and has operating cash flow of -$130,816.72.
Proposed equity of $600,000.00 leaves $247,000.00 after startup uses. Minimum forecast cash is $46,361.34; initial project spending is not recovered. Funding is uncommitted, with parking deposits and major unquoted condition work excluded.
Which lane evidence should determine the next rate?
Record paid load revenue, loaded/empty miles, waiting, downtime, fuel, repairs and actual collection. Compare a complete lane cycle with the paid driver schedule rather than comparing headline loaded-mile rates alone.
Obtain inspected tractor/trailer and insurance quotes and confirm counterparty payment terms. Test fewer loaded miles or a major outage without removing salaries and standing costs. Expand only when the paid lane evidence supports the existing fleet first.
Make the next decision with your own evidence
Use paid lane-cycle records and inspected fleet quotes to test the collected rate before making further fleet commitments.
Explore published business plan examples ↗Red Oak Freight is a fictional prelaunch scenario prepared with AI assistance. Inputs are illustrative; forecast results come from the matching saved financial model. Funding is proposed. The diagrams explain the case and do not depict actual premises, established demand or promised earnings. Replace the assumptions with evidence before committing.
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